Perhaps it will be sooner? The new Cray’s achieve 50 petaflops, so all they need to do is get some biological computing interfaces hooked up to the processor to truly think for themselves as an organic being.
Amazing that in 1984 we were using 4.77MHz machines to draw lines on the screen and 30 years later we’re looking at not only simulating life, but replicating it.
Engineer and inventor Ray Kurzweil believes that the human Brain is capable of a comparable processing power of about 10 PFlop/s. Of course, there are different opinions and a rather scientific experiment to estimate the computational ability of the human mind by IBM engineers concluded that our brain may be closer to about 38 PFlop/s and a memory of about 3584 TB. At the current speed of progress, we may be able to simulate a human brain as early as next year or, by IBM’s estimates, within 3 years.